Braves Prospects Weekly Report: Jhancarlos Lara strikes out 12 (2024)

This past week was one of the best in the Atlanta Braves system this year, as there were multiple dominant pitching performances to talk about. All throughout the system — from Lucas Braun in Mississippi to JR Ritchie down in Augusta — the pitching was on fire, but none were hotter than the Rome Emperors who had a pair of guys strike out 12 batters. We also got to enjoy some rehab games from Michael Harris II, who looks ready to come back and hopefully help the Braves turn the season around and get hot heading into October.

Gwinnett Stripers

Record: 53-61, 18-21 2nd half, 7th in IL West (8.5 GB)

The news for the Stripers this entire week was led by Michael Harris II, whose rehab went off as well as the Braves could have hoped. Harris was a force in every game he played, totalling 10 hits and a home run while only striking out three times. Harris seemed to move well in center field in the couple of games he played out there and the word still is that he is going to be activated as soon as he is eligible on Wednesday. Harris struggled to start the year in Atlanta (partially due to the team-wide batted ball curse) but is going to one of the biggest additions of the year when he joins down the stretch if not purely for the upgrade he provides defensively. Six of Harris’s final 11 batted balls were hit over 105 mph.

Beyond Harris there was some interesting development going on in the system, with Nacho Alvarez’s defensive home being one of the things worth watching. Prior to his MLB debut he played his final three games in Gwinnett at third base, and despite moving back to shortstop last week he was back at third base for the final four games of the Memphis series. It’s not a surety that this is the Braves giving up on Alvarez as a shortstop, but if I had to make a guess that probably is the case as they don’t typically favor even MLB veterans getting defensive reps over prospects if they feel the prospect can stick at that position long term. Alvarez has unsurprisingly looked great back at his natural position, though offensively he hasn’t been on a good stretch. Alvarez went just 2-20 last week, and while he is still making a ton of contact he just has not been hitting the ball hard at all.

Drake Baldwin however continues to separate himself as one of the top prospects in Triple-A around baseball with yet another huge week at the plate. Baldwin got on base in half of his plate appearances last week and continues to make not only a ton of contact but consistently hard contact as well. Baldwin still is most susceptible to fastballs, tending towards driving them the opposite way rather than turning on them, though he makes such good quality contact to all fields it hasn’t been a problem for him just yet. It’s still an exploit that major league pitchers will find a way to use, especially as he struggles on fastballs on the inner half because of this approach, however he has done a better job of not letting his bat flatten out too much at the top of the zone where in past weeks he tended to hit pitches in the upper half straight into the ground.

Before moving on to pitching it’s worth looking at Yuli Gurriel again, who continues to absolutely rake in Gwinnett. He had two more home runs this past week, and over a 25 game stretch now he has an OPS of 1.099, seven home runs, and more walks than strikeouts. MLB veterans raking at Triple-A is nothing new, and there is a combination of significant batted ball luck involved here, but it’s still a notable stretch. There is also still nowhere to really play him in Atlanta and I doubt he’d be much better than what they have there. On the pitching side of things none of the starting pitchers were particularly impressive last week, with the best performance coming from one of the relievers we’ve highlighted somewhat recently. Domingo Gonzalez is almost certainly going to be in the major leagues at some point next season, as he has played well enough in the minor leagues this year that the Braves are going to have to add him to the 40 man roster this offseason to keep from him getting poached in the Rule 5 draft. Gonzalez struck out seven batters across four innings last week, and the biggest number was the zero walks. Gonzalez has consistently missed bats both in and out of the zone and his raw stuff — mid 90’s sinker with a low release angle and upper 80’s slider in the 2500 rpm range — is big league quality. Most of his inconsistency has been with his command, but the talent is too big to ignore. It’s a good thing we’re seeing Dylan Lee back in the major leagues, though I hate that it’s at the expense of AJ Minter. Lee being in Triple-A was a joke and it showed as he has been absurdly dominant in his two games there. I know it’s all a matter of who has options, but Lee sitting in Triple-A cruising while the Braves blow a six run lead is a painful thing to experience.

Looking at the starters, the notable ones at least, and in all cases it was a matter of command being the issue. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep both didn’t really have command of their pitches and they struggled quite a bit in their starts. Waldrep managed to have enough luck to escape damage but he really didn’t have a good start overall. AJ Smith-Shawver has really been battling with his slider, showcasing a new shape to it nearly every game, and it doesn’t seem like progress is going to get there this year unfortunately. Smith-Shawver is still looking good with the fastball and changeup combination, but his battles with breaking ball command have caused him issues and it’s hard to see him getting a shot in the major leagues this year while they’re still working so much on developing those pitches. Ian Anderson also struggled with his command and didn’t have the consistent breaking pitches he showed in his previous start, though his changeup seems to be rounding into form and he was able to utilize the pitch to get weak contact. Anderson won’t be ready this season, which isn’t really a surprise, but he’s done a decent job of getting his velocity slowly back where it needs to be.

Series Preview

Gwinnett will face a Norfolk Tides team that isn’t quite as daunting as the one that was out there earlier this year, but still has plenty of talent. Heston Kjerstad is back in Norfolk following the Orioles optioning him at the beginning of August, and he has been one of the International League’s best hitters when active this year. The Stripers offense will have to contend with Cade Povich in Friday’s game, where it’s not clear who the Stripers will run out as it’s often an inconsistent rotation but we could see a great matchup between Povich and Hurston Waldrep.

Mississippi Braves

Record: 49-58, 18-21 2nd half, 4th in SL South (6.5 GB)

Mississippi was making a run for the second half title in their division for awhile, but the bottom has fallen out as the offense hasn’t been able to get much of anything going lately. It’s been nice to see David McCabe back in action this year, though so far he has really struggled with his timing and has 10 strikeouts in 29 plate appearances. I’m not at all surprised to see this for McCabe, as he was a guy who already had some bat speed questions and was coming off of such a long layoff. I’m going to give him quite a bit of leniency for the rest of this season with the expectation he has a chance to reclaim his top prospect status if he comes out looking good next year. He did flash some of what initially had people excited with a home run this past week, turning on what looked to be a slider or cutter on the inner half of the plate and absolutely demolishing it. McCabe has a ton of pop and should be able to get to it even in that run environment, and if he can manage a strong end to the season that would answer a lot of the questions about whether his approach and bat speed can translate against higher levels of pitching. There really isn’t a ton more to talk about with this offense, though I guess there is some level of comfort that can be taken in Keshawn Ogans’s recent performances. Ogans hasn’t been great — he still isn’t getting to near as much power as he did in Rome last year — but he has started to hit and draw walks more consistently. Since the all star break Ogans has a .329 OPS with eight walks to nine strikeouts and I still see him as a major league talent as he continues to improve his patience against breaking pitches.

The ones to watch with this team are still the pitchers as Lucas Braun and Drue Hackenberg continue the string of great arms that have rolled through Mississippi this year. Braun had a phenomenal day on Saturday, going 7 ²⁄₃ innings with eight strikeouts and no walks. There has been some experimentation with his approach over the past few games, and this was one of the best shows he’s had of that as he really commanded his fastball edge to edge and was able to dot the slider on the glove side to force tons of swing-and-miss. Braun had 20 total whiffs in the game, and right now my focus in watching him is seeing how the command of his changeup develops. His fastball and slider are both major league quality right now, but he hasn’t landed the changeup consistently enough on the arm side. Drue Hackenberg is finally throwing strikes again, and while I still do have some reservations about his fastball and slider command there is clearly a lot of progress being made for him. The Braves have been tweaking his arsenal all season which may explain why a lot of his pitches weren’t landing how they should early on, but when he locates the slider it is a clear major league quality pitch. I’m still not entirely sure what the goal is for Hackenberg’s identity, as the addition of a four seam fastball kind of muddies his profile and it hasn’t been an amazing pitch overall. Everything he throws kind of builds off of his slider, which is clearly his best pitch, but they’ve tried taking a guy with an east-west approach and working him more north to south and a lot of the trouble has been his slider not necessarily playing as well in that role.

Series Preview

Mississippi now heads down to Biloxi to take on a good Shuckers team. The top prospect for Biloxi is infielder Mike Boeve, who has been one of the better hitters in the Southern League this season. Boeve hasn’t hit for a ton of power in-game this year, but he draws walks and makes plenty of contact all adding up to an .812 OPS. The offense also feature Brock Wilken who has hit 14 home runs this season but is an abysmal 3-35 so far in August. The pitching staff features a strong trio of guys, led by Brewers #6 prospect Brett Wichrowski. Wichrowski has been a bit inconsistent this season, but outside of a poor game to end July has been on fire for the past month and a half allowing two or fewer runs in five of his past six starts. Two guys on the back end of Milwaukee’s top 30, both seen more as relief prospects long term, have also been impressive. Shane Smith has split time between the bullpen and rotation, but that has added up to 96 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA in 79 ²⁄₃ innings. Then there is KC Hunt, who had a dominant debut for the Shuckers last week striking out eight batters and allowing one run over 5 ¹⁄₃ innings. Hunt has been one of the best pitchers in the Brewers system this season, with a 1.93 ERA across three levels after being an undrafted free agent last summer.

Rome Emperors

Record: 51-53, 15-25 2nd half, 6th in SAL South (11 GB)

The Emperors are starting to get a bit of momentum going, as the offense that drove their first half success is getting hot again. The Emperors as a team had seven home runs last week, with two of those coming from Jace Grady. Grady has been inconsistent since being promoted to High-A, going through some occasional hot stretches with deep slumps in between, but when he is hot he shows off a solid combination of power and hit tool. If Grady can hit for a bit more power he has the on base skill to be a major league contributor, but he certainly will have to hit the ball hard more consistently.

Drew Compton was one of the bigger reasons that the Emperors started to slow down for a few weeks, as he hit a pretty deep slump in July despite his regular results of drawing walks and not striking out much. So far though August has been much better, as despite a dip in walks he is still hitting .294 and hit a home run last week that was his first since early July. The one player who unfortunately doesn’t seem to be coming out of a slump any time soon is EJ Exposito. Exposito had only two hits in 22 at bats last week and since the start of July has a .370 OPS. Exposito’s aggression on breaking balls has been a problem for him, and his previous improvements in contact rate are starting to regress back to where they were in 2023.

The Emps got two absurd pitching performances last week, each totaling 12 strikeouts. The first came from Jhancarlos Lara, whose breakout season last year hasn’t been met with as much success this year after injury delayed the start to his season. Yet just like last year Lara has come on strong after starting slow, and in his past four starts has 34 strikeouts to seven walks in 22 ²⁄₃ innings. The pinnacle of these performances was on Wednesday, when he went six hitless innings and struck out a season-high 12 batters. Lara’s been struggling to find the feel to locate his fastball and slider all year, but when he does he absolutely blow hitters away and it seems like he is now ready to make the jump to Double-A. His command may give him some trouble in the adjustment to that level, but I expect that move to come in the very near future.

Matching his performance was Mitch Farris, who couldn’t be a more different pitcher. Farris relies on his command to succeed and on Saturday he had everything working, dotting fastballs at the top of the zone and changeups on the arm side for swing and misses. Farris had 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, with the lone hit being a bunt single. Farris’s lack of fastball velocity has been the main thing keeping him off of most top-30 lists, but if he can command four pitches the way he did on Saturday night it may not matter all that much. Farris gets a ton of movement on his pitches and has been able to be one of the system’s strikeout leaders purely on movement, location, and deception.

As for the other couple of prospects in the rotation it was a mixed bag of results. Blake Burkhalter’s command hasn’t been great at all this season, and this was the first game it really felt like it actually showed up on the stat sheet. Burkhalter got a fair amount of swing-and-miss, but walked five batters and had by far his worst start. Adam Maier hasn’t looked great at all so far since coming back from his injured list stint, though it’s fair to mainly focus on him staying healthy and working deeper into games. Maier is going to struggle to succeed if his fastball stays sitting around 91-92, as even though his slider and splitter are nasty pitches he doesn’t really locate his pitches as well as his walk rates indicate.

Series Preview

The Emperors will welcome the Asheville Tourists to town this week, and with that will come our old friend Mahki Backstrom. Backstrom was released by the Braves after struggling with the organization, but after heading to indy ball where he had a great season the Astros took a chance on him and picked him up a couple of weeks ago. Beyond Backstrom this roster has a couple of significant prospects, most significantly first round pick Walker Janek. Janek debuted with Asheville last week and had a solid week, going 5-18 with a double. The number four prospect in the Houston system is also on the roster — Luis Baez — a 20-year old outfielder who has had a good year for the Tourists. Baez has big power and has hit 20 home runs this season, but has struggled with a 27.3% strikeout rate and much of his success has been in Asheville’s friendly home confines. Baes has just a .678 OPS on the road versus his .849 home OPS.

Augusta GreenJackets

Record: 37-67, 10-29 2nd Half, 6th in CAR South (14 GB)

It is getting pretty ugly down in Augusta, as no one on the offense has done much hitting lately. They weren’t helped by weather raining out the first three games last week, but when they did come back no one except Colby Jones seemed to be able to make any magic. Jones had a solid week going 4-10 at the plate in his first full week on the roster, but outside of him no one else on the team managed more than two hits. It’s been a struggle for everyone, but the biggest problem has been Junior Garcia who hasn’t found any success since his promotion. Garcia went 0-14 last week, and most concerning made eight of those outs on strikeouts. The youth at the top of the lineup is obvious, as all four of Garcia along with John Gil, Luis Guanipa, and Isaiah Drake have struggled to handle secondary pitches well and haven’t been hitting. Drake was in his first week off of the injured list where he had a short stay and did have one hit, but otherwise struggled like the rest. Neither Gil nor Guanipa have seemed overwhelmed, and it seems like they are one or two adjustments away from really taking off, but that over-aggression has become more and more of a problem especially for Gil who did get off to a solid start.

For all of the struggles of the offense the pitching staff has mostly made it worth it, though the rain last week threw the rotation into a bit of disarray. Didier Fuentes only threw 2 ²⁄₃ innings and 50 pitches, and it appeared as if he was looking at and wiping his index finger possibly indicating that it was just a blister. JR Ritchie saved the week for everyone, pitching an outstanding game on Saturday where it felt like he was finally getting back into being the pitcher he was prior to his Tommy John surgery. Ritchie hasn’t recovered his velocity yet, but his changeup and slider are both finding their shape more consistently and the command has made leaps with every passing start. Players this young typically don’t recover this quickly from TJS, but Ritchie has been the exception, pitching better each game and showing once again that he could be a top 100 worthy player. We may need to wait until next season to see him at full strength, but with the way he has looked so far this fall if he continues on this pace he will likely be ready to start next year in Rome.

Series Preview

Augusta will also be welcoming an Astros affiliate to town, as the Fayetteville Woodpeckers make the trek to SRP Park. Fayetteville is not a particularly good or prospect-laden team, but they have gotten impressive work from pitcher Anderson Brito. Brito was an older signee as a pitcher, who has come into pro ball and seen a major increase in velocity while jumping from the DSL to the FCL and now into full season ball. Brito has only made a handful of appearances in Single-A but has been impressive with a 2.45 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 11 innings pitched. The Woodpeckers also feature two top 30 hitters in Nehomar Ochoa and Caden Powell. Ochoa has been with the team all season and played fairly well with a .693 OPS, though contact is a concern for the highly athletic outfielder. Caden Powell was a sixth round draft pick for Houston this season and went 5-10 in his debut with the Woodpeckers last week.

DSL Braves

Record: 14-32, 8th in DSL West (21.5 GB)

Unfortunately it is not great news down in the Dominican Summer League, as Jose Perdomo is once again injured it appears. On Thursday Perdomo left his game after just one plate appearance where he drew a walk then stole second base. Perdomo hasn’t played since, and hopefully this doesn’t keep him out the rest of the year as seeing him limited to just 22 plate appearances in his age-17 season would be a major disappointment. It’s certainly not anything to panic too completely over, but a player at this age going through major soft tissue injuries is something that is a red flag regardless of a guy’s talent level. The one positive for the team is Juan Mateo, who after having a terrible July has been able to turn things around so far this month. Mateo has been the best performer from the most recent international class, and last week went 6-17 with only one strikeout. Mateo’s ability to make contact is better than any player that has gone through the DSL Braves team in a long time, and he also draws a lot of walks to add to his on base skill. I’m excited to see him debut stateside next season, though once guys figure out the DSL like it seems Mateo has there really isn’t much more information to glean out of a guy further dominating the level.

Jose Perdomo injury

Jaun Mateo 6-17, 1 K